Categories: Baslik 5: Induksiyon

Induction, Probability, and Intelligence

    In conclusion, let us now return to the question of intelligence. Assuming that the world is
unpredictable and yet possesses the tendency to take habits to a significant degree, let us ask:
how should a system act in order to approximately maximize the given "appropriateness"
function A? In other words, let us ask the Kantian question: how is intelligence possible? One
reasonable answer is, by repeating the following schematic steps:

1. Recognize patterns in the environment
2. Construct a model of what the future will be like, based on reasoning by induction, assuming
the strengthened Peirce’s principle and using probability theory. That is, where t denotes the
present time, construct a set of statements of the form "according to my best guess, the
probability that the environment will exhibit pattern X, with intensity K, over time interval
[t,t+v], is P(X,K,v)", where P(X,K,v) is as high as possible.

3. Estimate what strategy will maximize A according to such an assumption.
In later chapters it will be proposed that this three-step process is applied recursively — that each of the three steps will often involve the application of all three steps to certain subproblems. And the process will be embedded in a larger, subtler web of structures and processes. But nonetheless, these three steps form the core about which the ideas of the following chapters will be arranged.

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